Lead: As of July 7, 2026, the domestic polycarbonate (PC) plastic raw material market averaged RMB 16,700/ton, a marked recovery from the past year’s low of RMB 13,725/ton, with prices trending moderately upward amid ongoing volatility. As a major engineering plastic, the trajectory of PC market prices reflects a multi-way interplay between slowing capacity expansion on the supply side and fluctuating bisphenol A costs on the cost side.
Market Snapshot
Over the past year, PC prices have swung widely within a range of RMB 13,725–18,081/ton, with the current level of RMB 16,700/ton sitting slightly above the midpoint of that range. From a trend analysis standpoint, PC prices have broken out of the earlier low-level consolidation phase and are gradually shifting to a higher center of gravity, though they have yet to break through the previous high. Overall, the market shows a pattern of “a rising price center paired with wider volatility,” reflecting a cautious tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors.
In-Depth Analysis
The underlying logic behind PC price movements remains anchored in two core variables: cost-side and supply-demand dynamics.
- Cost side: Bisphenol A, the primary feedstock for PC, is highly sensitive to international crude oil and phenol-acetone price movements. Historical data show that fluctuations in international crude oil prices are quickly transmitted to PC prices via bisphenol A, producing periodic cost-push rallies — this is also the main reason behind PC’s relatively high short-term price volatility.
- Supply side: According to industry research estimates, China’s PC production capacity has grown to roughly 3.99 million tons. The earlier phase of rapid expansion had weighed on industry sentiment, but new capacity additions for 2025–2027 are relatively limited (around 440,000 tons), and industry utilization rates have been steadily recovering from previous lows. The supply-demand imbalance is showing marginal improvement.
- Demand side: Downstream PC demand is concentrated mainly in electronics and appliances, automotive, and sheet materials. Current demand is characterized by “rigid-need support as the mainstay, with limited speculative stockpiling,” as downstream buyers largely purchase on an as-needed basis with limited tolerance for high prices — this has, to some extent, constrained further upside in prices.
Outlook (Next 1-2 Weeks)
Taking cost-side and supply-demand signals together, PC market prices are likely to remain in a high-level, volatile pattern in the short term, with prices more likely to rise than fall. If bisphenol A and upstream crude oil prices do not pull back significantly, there is a possibility of modest further gains in PC prices; however, with downstream buyers still largely waiting on the sidelines at higher price points, the expected upside room remains relatively limited.
Market recommendation: Downstream customers with rigid procurement needs may consider stocking up in batches at current price levels to avoid procurement costs being pushed up passively by sudden cost-side swings. For non-urgent orders, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines, closely monitor the correlated signals from bisphenol A and crude oil prices, and enter the market opportunistically.
